Climate scenario: ECHAM5_A2_1

IPCC scenario: A2

Main assumptions

  • A world of independently operating, self-reliant nations.
  • Continuously increasing population.
  • Regionally oriented economic development.

Reference

Nakićenović, N., Alcamo, J., Davis, G., de Vries, B., Fenhann, J., Gaffin, S., Gregory, K. and Grübler, A. (2000) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, Working Group III, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

Global model: ECHAM5

Initialisation: Member 1

Reference

Roeckner, E., Bäuml, G., Bonaventura, L., Brokopf, R., Esch, M., Giorgetta, M., Hagemann, S., Kirchner, I., Kornblueh, L., Manzini, E., Rhodin, A., Schlese, U., Schulzweida, U. and Tompkins, A. (2003) The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM5. PART I: Model description. Technical Report, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, MPI-Report 349.

Regional model: RCA3

Reference

Samuelsson, P., Jones, C. G., Willén, U., Ullerstig, A., Gollvik, S., Hansson, U., Jansson, C., Kjellström, E., Nikulin, G. and Wyser, K. (2011) The Rossby Centre Regional Climate model RCA3: model description and performance. Tellus A, 63:4–23.

Scandinavian characteristics

This projection is included (nr. 8 in Table 1) in the investigation by Kjellström et al. (2011). There, average temperature and precipitation changes in Scandinavia (from 1961-1990 to 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100) in all 16 projections were compared (Fig. 10). Generally, the future increases in temperature and precipitation are linearly related, where a weak temperature increase corresponds to a weak precipitation increase, and vice versa. Below, “increase” corresponds to both temperature and precipitation; “small” means that the increase is among the smaller ones of all 16 projections considered, “medium” that the increase is among the middle ones, and “large” that the increase is among the larger ones, for the period considered.

As compared with all 16 projections considered, the increase in projection ECHAM5_A2_1 is:
2011-2040: small
2041-2070: small/medium
2071-2100: medium

Reference

Kjellström, E., Nikulin, G., Hansson, U., Strandberg, G. and Ullerstig, A. (2011) 21st century changes in the European climate: uncertainties derived from an ensemble of regional climate model simulations. Tellus A, 63:24–40.